Yoshikawa Hiroshi, President, Rissho University The Current COVID-19 Pandemic The current state of the Japanese economy is at a postwar low point not just in Japan but across the world due to the spread of COVID-19 since early 2020, and this is our biggest problem at present. On top of the normal influenza in winter, the spread of a third wave is feared in Japan. What will happen to the Japanese economy amid that? The second quarter of April through June, 2020 showed -28.1 points (second preliminary estimate), the lowest in the postwar period. This was a dramatic drop even in comparison to the Lehman Shock. A major factor here is the drop in consumption. About 60% of Japan’s GDP of some 500 trillion yen is consumption. At the very heart of the economy lies household and personal consumption. Consumption is stable compared to ... ... [Read more]

Iwaisako Tokuo, Professor, Hitotsubashi University   Key points Both household savings and current account balances are gradually moving into the red The rates of return on assets are not expected to rise after the COVID-19 pandemic Economic policy focuses on measures to improve the productivity of workers   From a macroeconomic perspective, there has been surprisingly little change in the circumstances surrounding Japanese household financial assets in the past quarter-century. To start with, household savings rates dropped sharply at the beginning of twenty-first century. This prompted an outcry among economists about the arrival of the “zero-saving society”, backed by the simulation studies predicting negative household savings and the current account deficit (= negative national savings). But by the mid-2000s, saving rates had stabilized at a low level and the situation has remained nearly unchanged since then. In economics, annual savings is a flow variable, ... ... [Read more]

Fujimoto Takahiro, Professor, Graduate School of Economics and Manufacturing Management Research Center, University of Tokyo   Key points Issues include sustainability, digitalization and internationalization The discourse around the decline in the Japanese manufacturing industry and the praise for EVs is superficial The challenges are intertwined in complicated ways and Japanese industry is evolving   What kind of age will the 2020s be in the evolution of industry? The decade began with the global COVID-19 pandemic, the effects of which are certain to be prolonged, but the long-term industrial phenomena include measures to counter global warming, a series of floods and earthquakes, digitalization, US-China friction, and a shrinking real economy at a time of infections. To complicate matters, these issues are interlinked in complex ways. We live in complicated times in the true sense. These issues can be summed up as S for sustainability=crisis, D ... ... [Read more]

Oba Mie, Professor, Kanagawa University   Key points Needs to center around formulation of shared rules for investment, intellectual property Important that China accepts restrictive provisions Needs to have shared rules aimed at sustainable development   In November 2020, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed by 15 countries, comprising the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. This created a huge economic zone that accounts for around 30% of the world’s GDP, trade and population. The start of negotiations by 16 countries, including India, was announced in November 2012. Aligning the complicated interests of each country was not easy, and the deadline for negotiations was postponed many times. After many twists and turns, a negotiated agreement was reached. India ultimately decided not to join. Through the 2010s, the future ... ... [Read more]

Kimura Fukunari, Professor, Keio University   Key points Pressing need to restore rules-based international trading order Mega FTAs effective strategy in reducing policy risk Important to utilize and strengthen TPP11 and RCEP   Since the mid-1980s, international production networks have developed in East Asia. This international division of labor in terms of production processes and tasks has created “Factory Asia” in the manufacturing industry, particularly machinery industries. The production blocks responsible for processes and tasks in production networks are located across national borders, necessitating economic conditions and a policy environment that allows for close coordination between production blocks. A rules-based international trading order is therefore essential. However, in the past four years the international trading order has been under assault. The international trading order has faced challenges on many fronts, including the Trump administration’s trade policy that shows a disregard for the rules, countermeasures ... ... [Read more]

Morikawa Masayuki, President, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)   With the steep decline of gross domestic product (GDP) under the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, how much has productivity dropped? The figure below shows month-by-month changes in the overall productivity of the Japanese economy. While production activity in May 2020 was down around 15% compared with the end of 2019, productivity declined only about 3%. Although productivity still remains below the level before the consumption tax rate hike, it recovered to almost the pre-COVID-19 level in August.     Figure. Labor Productivity Under the COVID-19 Crisis   The decline in labor productivity until now has been smaller than might have been expected because labor input, which corresponds to the denominator in the calculation, has dropped steeply in tandem with industrial activity. A breakdown shows that working time adjustments, including reduction of overtime ... ... [Read more]

Kojima Fuhito, Professor and Director at the University of Tokyo Market Design Center (UTMD) Key points Focusing on the visible hand that replaces traditional price mechanisms Expanding the use of market design for kidney transplants Improving institutional design to eliminate the childcare waiting lists issue   One of the most prominent ideas in economics is Adam Smith’s concept of the “invisible hand.” The invisible hand is the magical mechanism for price adjustment that is capable of maximizing the wealth of society if self-interested consumers and companies respond to the prices of goods and services. With advances of research in economics,  this idea has been elaborated upon. However, neoliberals have also used this phrase to promote deregulation. And yet, no one has ever actually seen the invisible hand. In fact, examples of the price mechanism not working can be found everywhere in society. Although it ... ... [Read more]

Yoshida Yushi, Professor of Economics, Shiga University   In the 21st century, Japan’s current account (CA) has undergone a sea change. This is partly due to external shocks, namely the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, which depressed global demand, and the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, which caused substantial damage to the domestic production base. The COVID-19 Shock of 2020, however, has had a completely different impact. Broadly speaking, CA can be divided into the balance of trade, services, and income. The balance of trade is the difference between the value of exports and the value of imports; the balance on services is the difference between country’s inbound travel and transportation and country’s outbound travel and transportation; and the balance on income is the difference between income (compensation of employees and investment income) earned from overseas and income paid overseas. For many years, ... ... [Read more]

Ueda Kazuo, Professor, Kyoritsu Women’s University   Key points A shift to a total rejection of fiscal deficit and government debt Large government debts negatively impact potential growth rate Continuing to refinance entails the risk of heavy losses   Every country’s finances have deteriorated significantly, mainly due to expansionary fiscal policies in response to COVID-19. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the ratio of outstanding debt to GDP in developed countries in 2020 will exceed that immediately following World War II, making it the highest since the late nineteenth century. Currently, governments have no choice but to continue to support their economies through fiscal policy. However, a major challenge is the medium- to long-term reduction of fiscal deficit and government debts, which have ballooned to an unprecedented scale. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has become a hot topic in relation to how to address ... ... [Read more]

Owan Hideo, Faculty Fellow, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), Professor, Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University   Much attention has been paid to how the external shock of the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the relationship between companies and workers. The aging of Japan’s traditional employment system has long been an issue, but even before the Corona crisis, large companies had been working on reforming their personnel systems along with their work styles reform efforts. One example of such attempts is the introduction of “job-based” employment by Hitachi, Ltd.[1] Some believe that the COVID-19 crisis will accelerate the trend. In this article I summarize what has changed due to the crises and explore for what changes are likely in the future. Seniority and late promotion have been cited as problems with the Japanese conventional employment model. These two features were ... ... [Read more]